{ "title": "He Ara Angit\u016b whole-cohort earnings sensitivity", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sheet": "Human Capital & Earnings", "source_rows": "107:118", "calculation_date": "2026-07-12", "status": "Scenario sensitivity \u2014 not forecast", "method": "Current authoritative workbook bridge. Affected-population and whole-cohort-average uplifts are distinct and must not be combined.", "integrity_notes": [ "Gross earnings are national social value, not Crown cash.", "Tax and ACC are fiscal effects and are not added to social benefits on top of gross earnings.", "Benefit-payment reductions are included only where non-overlapping.", "The core-plus-targeted design currently assumes retained high-risk effectiveness that has not been demonstrated.", "The 10% scenario is an upside stress test, not a forecast.", "Tax effects in large sensitivities should receive an independent direct tax-bracket rerun before formal publication." ], "rows": [ { "design": "Universal core only", "discount_rate": 0.02, "scenario_key": "0.0", "scenario_label": "Current base model excluding unproven whole-cohort earnings gain", "equivalent_full_cohort_per_1pct_affected": 0.147451397625, "full_expenditure_social_bcr": 0.23428117337847107, "net_social_roi": -0.7657188266215289, "crown_fiscal_coverage": 0.10363634121120367, "net_crown_fiscal_roi": -0.8963636587887963, "net_crown_fiscal_cost": 739622704.1159323, "gross_present_value_additional_real_earnings": 0.0, "additional_income_tax_and_acc_revenue": 0.0, "benefit_payment_reductions_nonoverlap": 1516944.4002347072, "annual_or_period_cost": 825136870.3583333, "base_social_benefit": 193314034.1853897, "base_crown_benefit": 83997221.84216624, "effective_affected_employed_population": 7814.379978467764, "full_cohort": 62348.6, "status": "Current base model", "discount_rate_percent": 2, "scenario_percent": 0.0, "design_slug": "universal-core", "scenario_slug": "base-no-unproven-cohort-uplift" }, { "design": "Universal core only", "discount_rate": 0.02, "scenario_key": "affected1", "scenario_label": "Current 1% affected-population sensitivity", "equivalent_full_cohort_per_1pct_affected": 0.147451397625, "full_expenditure_social_bcr": 0.45056434510887466, "net_social_roi": -0.5494356548911253, "crown_fiscal_coverage": 0.17419002640291611, 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