{ "schema_version": "1.0", "export_id": "HAA-FIN-WEB-V9.1-20260714", "report_version": "v9.1 Architecture Candidate", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "verified_date": "2026-07-14", "allowed_public_statuses": [ "approved_headline", "approved_with_caveat", "approved_scenario_only" ], "metrics": [ { "metric_id": "COST_STAGE0", "public_label": "Stage 0 feasibility and co-design cost", "value": 5317875, "display_value": "$5.3m", "unit": "NZD", "period": "Stage 0", "perspective": "Crown cash", "scenario": "Immediate request", "discount_rate": "Not applicable", "evidence_status": "Planning estimate", "publication_status": "approved_headline", "caveat": "Estimated cost of feasibility, co-design, legal, data, evaluation and full business-case development. It is not approval or funding for the pilot or national rollout.", "source_sheet": "Stage 0 - Year 0", "source_cell": "H54", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "COST_PILOT", "public_label": "Three-year bounded pilot cost", "value": 97579970.263125, "display_value": "$97.6m", "unit": "NZD", "period": "Three years", "perspective": "Crown cash", "scenario": "Conditional pilot", "discount_rate": "Not applicable", "evidence_status": "Planning estimate", "publication_status": "approved_with_caveat", "caveat": "Conditional on Stage 0 and a fresh approval. It is not requested now.", "source_sheet": "Stage 1 - Pilot", "source_cell": "E6", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "COST_CORE_ONLY", "public_label": "Universal core annual cost", "value": 825136870.3583333, "display_value": "$825.1m", "unit": "NZD/year", "period": "Mature annual", "perspective": "Crown cash", "scenario": "Universal core only", "discount_rate": "Not applicable", "evidence_status": "Scenario only — untested", "publication_status": "approved_scenario_only", "caveat": "A conditional comparator, not a recommendation or current funding request.", "source_sheet": "Delivery Scenarios", "source_cell": "G20", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "COST_CORE_TARGET", "public_label": "Universal core plus targeted accelerator annual cost", "value": 875015750.3583333, "display_value": "$875.0m", "unit": "NZD/year", "period": "Mature annual", "perspective": "Crown cash", "scenario": "Universal core plus targeted accelerator", "discount_rate": "Not applicable", "evidence_status": "Scenario only — retained effect unproven", "publication_status": "approved_scenario_only", "caveat": "Candidate lower-cost structure for testing. Its effectiveness and retained high-risk effect have not been demonstrated.", "source_sheet": "Delivery Scenarios", "source_cell": "G21", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "COST_MATURE", "public_label": "Mature full national annual cost", "value": 1526137729.0833335, "display_value": "$1.526b", "unit": "NZD/year", "period": "Mature annual", "perspective": "Crown cash", "scenario": "Mature full national design", "discount_rate": "Not applicable", "evidence_status": "Planning model", "publication_status": "approved_with_caveat", "caveat": "A conditional scale comparator, not the immediate request and not evidence that national rollout is affordable.", "source_sheet": "Stage 2 - National", "source_cell": "K48", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "COST_IMPLEMENTATION_5Y", "public_label": "Five-year implementation cash cost", "value": 4537913727.8875, "display_value": "$4.538b", "unit": "NZD", "period": "Five-year implementation", "perspective": "Crown cash", "scenario": "Central", "discount_rate": "Not applicable", "evidence_status": "Planning model", "publication_status": "approved_with_caveat", "caveat": "Conditional implementation comparator only; no national commitment is sought.", "source_sheet": "Executive Summary", "source_cell": "C13", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "PAYMENT_ANNUAL_CENTRAL", "public_label": "Central annual verified participation payment", "value": 3900, "display_value": "$3,900", "unit": "NZD/person/year", "period": "Annual", "perspective": "Participant resource / programme expenditure", "scenario": "Central average participant", "discount_rate": "Not applicable", "evidence_status": "Policy formula", "publication_status": "approved_headline", "caveat": "Derived from $150 per week × 40 eligible weeks × 65% average earned proportion. Actual earned amounts vary.", "source_sheet": "Learning Capital & ROI", "source_cell": "A5:C8", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "PAYMENT_IMMEDIATE_ANNUAL", "public_label": "Central annual immediate-access payment", "value": 1950, "display_value": "$1,950", "unit": "NZD/person/year", "period": "Annual", "perspective": "Participant resource / programme expenditure", "scenario": "Central average participant", "discount_rate": "Not applicable", "evidence_status": "Policy formula", "publication_status": "approved_headline", "caveat": "Half of the central annual participation payment. It remains programme expenditure.", "source_sheet": "Learning Capital & ROI", "source_cell": "C11", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "LC_ANNUAL_CENTRAL", "public_label": "Central annual Learning Capital contribution", "value": 1950, "display_value": "$1,950", "unit": "NZD/person/year", "period": "Annual", "perspective": "Participant protected asset / programme expenditure", "scenario": "Central average participant", "discount_rate": "Not applicable", "evidence_status": "Policy formula", "publication_status": "approved_headline", "caveat": "This is the annual contribution. It must not be confused with the $9,750 five-year cumulative contribution.", "source_sheet": "Learning Capital & ROI", "source_cell": "C12", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "LC_FIVE_YEAR_CONTRIBUTION", "public_label": "Five-year Learning Capital contribution per participant", "value": 9750, "display_value": "$9,750", "unit": "NZD/person", "period": "Five school years", "perspective": "Participant protected asset / programme expenditure", "scenario": "Central average participant", "discount_rate": "Not applicable", "evidence_status": "Policy formula", "publication_status": "approved_headline", "caveat": "Five annual protected contributions of $1,950. It is not an annual amount, investment return or Crown saving.", "source_sheet": "Learning Capital & ROI", "source_cell": "C23", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "LC_BALANCE_NOMINAL", "public_label": "Projected closing nominal Learning Capital balance", "value": 10681.574885879423, "display_value": "$10,682", "unit": "NZD/person", "period": "Five school years", "perspective": "Participant protected asset", "scenario": "Central", "discount_rate": "Nominal", "evidence_status": "Modelled sensitivity", "publication_status": "approved_with_caveat", "caveat": "Includes modelled net investment returns after fees, tax and lifecycle assumptions. It is not guaranteed.", "source_sheet": "Learning Capital & ROI", "source_cell": "C26", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "LOAN_GROSS_DISPLACED", "public_label": "Gross student-loan lending displaced", "value": 170706529.06716847, "display_value": "$170.7m", "unit": "NZD/cohort", "period": "Annual national cohort", "perspective": "Gross lending displacement", "scenario": "Central", "discount_rate": "Nominal", "evidence_status": "Modelled sensitivity", "publication_status": "approved_with_caveat", "caveat": "Gross lending avoided is not a net Crown saving; the Crown also forgoes repayments.", "source_sheet": "Cohort Bridge", "source_cell": "D27", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "LOAN_FAIR_VALUE_AVOIDED", "public_label": "Official fair-value cost avoided", "value": 58449915.55259848, "display_value": "$58.4m", "unit": "NZD/cohort", "period": "Cohort lifetime", "perspective": "Crown fiscal offset before consequential costs", "scenario": "Central", "discount_rate": "Official initial fair-value cost rate", "evidence_status": "Calculated from official rate and modelled displacement", "publication_status": "approved_with_caveat", "caveat": "A modelled offset, not an official government forecast. It is not equal to gross loan principal displaced.", "source_sheet": "Cohort Bridge", "source_cell": "D28", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "LC_CONSEQUENTIAL_COSTS", "public_label": "Learning Capital administration and induced-study costs", "value": 52622218.4, "display_value": "$52.6m", "unit": "NZD/cohort", "period": "Cohort lifetime", "perspective": "Crown fiscal consequential cost", "scenario": "Central", "discount_rate": "Nominal", "evidence_status": "Modelled sensitivity", "publication_status": "approved_with_caveat", "caveat": "Deducted from the modelled fair-value offset before stating a net Crown fiscal effect.", "source_sheet": "Cohort Bridge", "source_cell": "D29", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "LC_NET_CROWN_OFFSET_NOMINAL", "public_label": "Net Learning Capital Crown fiscal offset — nominal", "value": 5827697.152598478, "display_value": "$5.8m", "unit": "NZD/cohort", "period": "Cohort lifetime", "perspective": "Crown fiscal effect", "scenario": "Central", "discount_rate": "Nominal", "evidence_status": "Modelled sensitivity", "publication_status": "approved_with_caveat", "caveat": "Nominal figure after consequential costs. It is not present value and is not netted against programme-payment cash expenditure.", "source_sheet": "Cohort Bridge", "source_cell": "D30", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "LC_NET_CROWN_OFFSET_PV", "public_label": "Net Learning Capital Crown fiscal offset — present value", "value": 1531522.8685146212, "display_value": "$1.5m", "unit": "NZD PV/cohort", "period": "Cohort lifetime", "perspective": "Crown fiscal effect", "scenario": "Central", "discount_rate": "Present-value view", "evidence_status": "Modelled sensitivity", "publication_status": "approved_with_caveat", "caveat": "The discounted equivalent of the net Learning Capital offset. It is distinct from the $5.8m nominal amount. The two are not additive.", "source_sheet": "Cohort Bridge", "source_cell": "F30", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "BCR_FULL_1PCT_2", "public_label": "Full-expenditure social BCR at 1% affected-population earnings uplift", "value": 0.3817901563689555, "display_value": "0.382×", "unit": "x", "period": "Aligned annual cohort / working-life benefits", "perspective": "National social", "scenario": "Mature national design", "discount_rate": "2%", "evidence_status": "Sensitivity — not forecast", "publication_status": "approved_headline", "caveat": "The honest lead BCR. The 1% uplift applies only to the effective affected employed population, not uniformly to every student.", "source_sheet": "Public Financial Summary", "source_cell": "B27", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "CROWN_FISCAL_COVERAGE_1PCT_2", "public_label": "Crown fiscal coverage at 1% affected-population earnings uplift", "value": 0.15307249872414824, "display_value": "15.3%", "unit": "percent", "period": "Aligned annual cohort / working-life benefits", "perspective": "Crown fiscal", "scenario": "Mature national design", "discount_rate": "2%", "evidence_status": "Sensitivity — not forecast", "publication_status": "approved_headline", "caveat": "Measures valid Crown fiscal offsets against full expenditure. It is not a social BCR or cash profit.", "source_sheet": "Public Financial Summary", "source_cell": "F27", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "NET_SOCIAL_ROI_1PCT_2", "public_label": "Conventional net social ROI at 1% uplift", "value": -0.6182098436310445, "display_value": "−61.8%", "unit": "percent", "period": "Aligned annual cohort / working-life benefits", "perspective": "National social", "scenario": "Mature national design", "discount_rate": "2%", "evidence_status": "Sensitivity — not forecast", "publication_status": "approved_with_caveat", "caveat": "A negative result under the stated sensitivity; it does not assess unpriced human value or prove the programme cannot work.", "source_sheet": "Public Financial Summary", "source_cell": "B28", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "NET_CROWN_FISCAL_ROI_1PCT_2", "public_label": "Conventional net Crown fiscal ROI at 1% uplift", "value": -0.8469275012758517, "display_value": "−84.7%", "unit": "percent", "period": "Aligned annual cohort / working-life benefits", "perspective": "Crown fiscal", "scenario": "Mature national design", "discount_rate": "2%", "evidence_status": "Sensitivity — not forecast", "publication_status": "approved_with_caveat", "caveat": "The model does not show fiscal self-funding at the 1% sensitivity.", "source_sheet": "Public Financial Summary", "source_cell": "F28", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "NET_CROWN_FISCAL_COST_1PCT_2", "public_label": "Net Crown fiscal cost at 1% uplift", "value": 1292528013.5, "display_value": "$1.293b", "unit": "NZD/year", "period": "Mature annual", "perspective": "Crown fiscal", "scenario": "Mature national design", "discount_rate": "2%", "evidence_status": "Sensitivity — not forecast", "publication_status": "approved_with_caveat", "caveat": "Full mature annual expenditure less valid Crown fiscal offsets at the stated sensitivity.", "source_sheet": "Public Financial Summary", "source_cell": "B30", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "BREAK_EVEN_SOCIAL_2", "public_label": "Mature national social break-even earnings uplift", "value": 0.058127484370145754, "display_value": "5.81%", "unit": "percent", "period": "Working-life benefits", "perspective": "National social", "scenario": "Mature national design", "discount_rate": "2%", "evidence_status": "Reverse-calculated threshold", "publication_status": "approved_headline", "caveat": "Affected-population uplift required for modelled social BCR to reach 1.0×. It is not a predicted effect.", "source_sheet": "Public Financial Summary", "source_cell": "B29", "source_workbook": "He_Ara_Angitu_Professional_Financial_Model_FINAL.xlsx", "source_sha256": "5101a994759b7c9335e1eb95880ded7d1854ab648681b856cdbc045ebb8a0955", "model_role": "Sole calculation authority", "version": "V9.1 candidate website export", "last_verified": "2026-07-14" }, { "metric_id": "BREAK_EVEN_CROWN_2", "public_label": "Mature national Crown fiscal break-even earnings uplift", "value": 0.2121187054253007, "display_value": "21.2%", "unit": "percent", "period": "Working-life benefits", "perspective": "Crown fiscal", "scenario": "Mature national design", "discount_rate": "2%", "evidence_status": "Reverse-calculated threshold", "publication_status": "approved_headline", "caveat": "Affected-population uplift required for Crown fiscal coverage to reach 100%. 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